Bitcoin surpassed $100,000 on Thursday as investors anticipated a favorable regulatory shift in the U.S. Meanwhile, Asian stocks remained stable following record highs on Wall Street, fueled by increasing confidence in potential interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Bitcoin reached the $100,000 mark in the morning in Asia and was last reported at $103,400.
“At the end of the day, it’s just a number,” said Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered. “However, the reality is that we have achieved this level primarily because the industry has become more institutionalized this year, largely due to ETF inflows,” he added, referencing the exchange-traded funds approved earlier this year. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all reached record highs overnight.
Over the past week and a half, markets have almost fully priced in an additional U.S. rate cut for 2025, with the implied probability of a cut in December rising from even odds to around 75%. S&P 500 futures dipped slightly, while European futures fell by 0.2%. German stocks have risen by 4% in the past week and are at record levels. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan declined by 0.2%, as losses in Hong Kong offset gains in Australia and Japan. Japan’s Nikkei index reached a three-week high, increasing by about 0.4%.
Conversely, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell approximately 1.1%. The U.S. ISM survey indicated a slowdown in services sector activity in November, following significant gains in previous months. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell by three basis points to 4.182%, remaining steady during Asian trading hours.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made balanced comments at a New York Times event on Wednesday, describing the economy as being in good shape without strongly opposing market expectations for rate cuts. Earlier this week, Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggested he was leaning toward a cut in December. European retail sales figures and German factory orders are expected later today, though the week’s main focus is on U.S. employment data set to release on Friday, where a strong report could reverse recent trends in the bond market.
“Overall, U.S. data has remained relatively resilient,” noted Su-Lin Ong, the chief economist at RBC Capital Markets in Sydney, adding that measures like the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate indicate solid growth of 3.2% in the fourth quarter. “We believe the market has priced in too much.”
The dollar tracked U.S. yields lower in the foreign exchange market, albeit modestly. The euro was pinned at $1.0525, affected by political turmoil in France, where the government lost a confidence vote for the first time since 1962. French bond futures were steady in Asian trading. The yen has retraced some of its recent gains, and expectations for a rate hike in December have eased due to reports indicating policymakers’ likely caution. It was slightly firmer at 150.14 yen per dollar on Thursday.
The Australian dollar, trading at $0.6435, experienced its largest fall in a month on Wednesday, following weaker-than-expected growth data. Financial markets in South Korea remained broadly stable after President Yoon Suk Yeol’s unsuccessful attempt to impose martial law on Tuesday, which had sparked volatility and a political crisis.
In the commodity markets, ongoing expectations of Chinese stimulus supported iron ore prices, while oil prices inched higher in anticipation of an OPEC+ meeting later in the day. Sources indicated that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies in OPEC+ are likely to extend their current round of oil production cuts. Brent crude futures rose by two cents to $72.33 per barrel, while gold prices stabilized at $2,649 per ounce.